as of Oct 19, 2026, 6:30 PM EDT
Democrats control in 60,825 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Democrats control in 61,317 of 100,000 simulated elections.
mean 51.0 Dem-caucus seats Dashed line marks a majority.
mean 51.0 Dem-caucus seats Dashed line marks a majority.
Democrats control in 99,331 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Democrats control in 99,215 of 100,000 simulated elections.
mean 246.2 Dem-caucus seats Dashed line marks a majority.
mean 245.9 Dem-caucus seats Dashed line marks a majority.
Darker is likelier. The palest shades are tossups: the leading side wins 65% of simulations or fewer.
Our error model leaves out one correlated term, so this figure is slightly firmer than it should be. Known limitations.
A dispatch when the numbers move.
Easy out anytime: manage or unsubscribe. See the privacy note.
Generic ballot: D+8.5 (38 polls, 45-day window, as of today)
Generic ballot: D+8.4 (39 polls, 45-day window, as of today)
Biggest shifts in Democratic win probability, this run vs. about a week ago.
The first Iowa Senate poll in our average with Hinson at 48 percent leaves Turek's chance unchanged, because the poll lands close to where our model already had the race.
A co/efficient survey of 863 likely voters, fielded October 15-19, puts Republican Ashley Hinson at 48 percent and Democrat Josh Turek at 45 percent in the race for Iowa's open Senate seat, with 2...
Written by the newsroom · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5
The new survey sits slightly below our average margin, yet the low end of our simulated range in Georgia now falls entirely on the Democratic side.
A Quantus Insights survey of 755 likely voters, fielded October 15-17, has Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff at 52.7% and Republican Mike Collins at 45.4%. That is a 7.3-point margin for the...
Written by the newsroom · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5
The new YouGov survey shows a smaller lead than our model had projected, trimming our average margin by about three points without changing Markey's chance of winning.
A YouGov survey for UMass Amherst and WCVB-TV of 800 registered voters, fielded October 5-12, has Democratic Sen. Ed Markey at 56% and Republican John Deaton at 29%. That is a 27-point lead. The...
Written by the newsroom · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5
Fifteen days out, our generic ballot average stands at D+8.4, and new polls show close Senate races in Iowa, Maine and Kansas.
With 15 days until the November 3 election, our model gives Democrats a 61% chance of winning a Senate majority and Republicans a 39% chance, as of 6:32 AM ET on October 19. That is down from the...
Written by the newsroom · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5
A 2,000-voter University of Houston survey has Talarico at 48 and Paxton at 46, and it left our model's estimate and average margin where they were.
A University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs survey of 2,000 likely voters, fielded October 10-14, puts Democrat James Talarico at 48% and Republican Ken Paxton at 46%, with 3% choosing...
Written by the newsroom · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5