as of Aug 19, 2026, 6:30 PM EDT
Republicans favored to control — 51 in 100 simulations.
49% Dem control 51% Rep control mean 50.2 Dem-caucus seats Dem-caucus seats per simulated world; dashed line = majority.
Democrats favored to control — 94 in 100 simulations.
94% Dem control 6% Rep control mean 242.3 Dem-caucus seats Dem-caucus seats per simulated world; dashed line = majority.
Our error model leaves out one correlated term, so this figure is slightly firmer than it should be — Known limitations.
Generic ballot: D+6.7 (25 polls, 45-day window, as of today)
Biggest shifts in Democratic win probability, this run vs. about a week ago.
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Our estimate went from 43% to 58% for the Democrat after a Susquehanna poll finished fielding on August 17.
Our model now gives Democrat Abdul El-Sayed a 58 in 100 chance of winning Michigan's open Senate seat, against 42% for Republican Mike Rogers. Three days ago, in our run of August 16 at 10:15 PM...
Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5
El-Sayed leads Rogers by seven in the new survey, and our model now gives the Democrat a 58 percent chance in the open seat.
A Susquehanna Polling & Research survey of 800 likely voters in Michigan, fielded August 11-17, puts Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 46 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 39 percent.
That is the...
Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5
J.L. Partners finds Tom Cotton ahead of Hallie Shoffner by 16 points, and our model still gives him a 100% chance in the seat.
A J.L. Partners survey of 803 likely voters in Arkansas, fielded August 14-18, put Republican Sen. Tom Cotton at 51% and Democrat Hallie Shoffner at 35%.
That 16-point margin is narrower than what...
Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5
Global Strategy Group has Republicans at 47 percent and Democrats at 43 in the Bucks County district; our model still gives the Democrat a 37 percent chance.
One new poll in Pennsylvania's 1st District has the Republican at 47 percent and the Democrat at 43 percent. It was conducted by Global Strategy Group among 500 likely voters, fielded August 5-9....
Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5
Our generic ballot average sits at D+6.7 across 25 polls, with Alaska, Louisiana and Ohio the largest movers in the Senate map overnight.
Seventy-six days out, our model gives Democrats a 48 percent chance of a Senate majority and Republicans 52 percent. The mean Democratic seat total in our simulations is 50.1, just short of the 51...
Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5